More of the same today as the markets continue to throw off odd signals and create cross currents. Futures were weaker this morning but recovered on the better than expected economic data and sentiment. The 10 AM pivot occurred and the SPX sold off, but the Energizer Bunny recovered, and the SPX floats sideways. The SPX is attempting to poke through the 1523-1524 resistance to light the way higher but cannot find the juice, yet. Interestingly, the intraday HOD at 1524.24 falls a few pennies shy of the current 2013 intraday high at 1524.69, but, the day is young. The high sets up negative divergence as discussed with the 2-hour chart this morning.
UTIL moved higher at the opening bell so bearish hopes vanish into the winter haze and the bulls find it easy to keep the markets elevated. However, note the drop in crude oil, falling through the 95.50 support discussed in this morning's charts, now sitting at the 95.50 deciding what to do. As oil goes, so goes the markets. The euro is moving higher but may be running out of gas, now at 1.3350. Use the 1.3330 as an equity bull versus bear line in the sand. Copper stayed positive until the regular trading hours began when it immediately turned negative, JJC is flirting with the 47 level so far today. The 10-year yield pops to 2.03% so the equity bulls place a feather in their caps. TRIN is 1.26 so the bears smile a sly smile and place a feather in their caps. WMT drops 2% which weighs on the RTH.
The sideways shuffle continues. Markets have to make a Julius Caesar decision, thumbs up or thumbs down. Here are the inflection points that will dictate market direction today; SPX 1523-1524, SPX 1514-1515, UTIL 469.78, UTIL 468.05, JJC 46.50, euro 1.3330, crude oil 95.00-95.50 and the 10-year yield 2.00% level, and, of course the TRIN. TRIN above 1.00 makes for happy bears, TRIN below 1.00 is happy bulls.
Note Added 2/15/13 at 11:49 AM: UTIL has a 471 handle. Bears need weaker utes and copper. TRIN likes the bear camp today. Well bears, what do you got today? The SPX is receiving the negative divergence spanking discussed with the 2-hour chart this morning. Go back to review that chart to see how the action has proceeded to now. The 8 MA is starting to curl over to the downside so see if that stabs through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart today, or not. SPX is 1520. Crude 95.51.
Note Added 2/15/13 at 1:22 PM: Oil is 95.71. UTIL 471.89. Copper is back to the flat line with JJC at 47.15. The euro is 1.3358. The 10-year is 2.03%. The bulls are not worried and are trying to foster a pre-holiday happy vibe in the markets today. The TRIN is 1.38 so the bears smile. The 8 MA is only 87 cents away from the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart so that will tell a lot over the next hour. Gold is moving down towards 1600 (it dipped below 1600 today), perhaps setting up a big fight next week at 1575-1600.
Note Added 2/15/13 at 2:31 PM: The 8 MA stabbed down through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. UTIL 471.61. JJC 47.08. So utes and copper both remain in the bull camp. The 10-year yield remains at 2.02%. Euro 1.3356. TRIN 1.52. VIX 12.74 turning positive on the day. WMT tanks now down 3% on news that its sales are very weak. Perhaps the high gasoline costs are cutting into the pocketbook. The RTH is puking on the news down over one percent. Financials (XLF) are down 0.6%. Here's the test of the critical 1514-1515 support discussed this morning.
Note Added 2/15/13 at 3:35 PM: Status quo. Utes and copper remain elevated helping bulls. TRIN is elevated helping bears. The SPX bounced off the 1514-1515 support. Looks like the pre-holiday buoyancy may want to push markets out sideways from here into the weekend.
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