Yesterday was a key reversal day. The SPX opened at the prior days high and closed below the prior days low. Typically for a key reversal, price needs to exceed the prior days high and close below the prior close but this is close enough for government work. The key reversal hints of a change in trend in the air even if markets recover in the days ahead. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Copper started this whole market parade south as it showed the initial indications of weakness last Sunday evening. Copper is weak again this morning. WTIC oil now lost the 94 level. Type 'WTIC' in the search box above to bring up the oil charts from last week for further study. Down oil means down markets. Lower commodities, oil and copper signal a weaker global economy and the move into disinflation and towards the dreaded deflation. The 10-year yield dropped under 2% overnight and is now printing 1.98%. Lower yields means lower equity markets.
The euro lost the 1.32 level overnight, now printing 1.3189. Lower euro means lower equity markets. European markets are lower this morning. The dollar is at 81.395. Higher dollar means lower equity markets. The higher dollar is killing gold which lost 41 bucks yesterday to close at 1564 well off the 1900 levels in the hay day. The SPX did not drop through the 20-day MA support but the Nasdaq ($COMPQ) dropped to 3164 losing the 20-day MA at 3167. Tech weakness is a bearish indication since tech should be leading the rally. Keystone's Inflation-Deflation Indicator is 296.59/100.141 which is 2.96 dropping a few more ticks into disinflation from the 2.99 the other day.
CPI (Consumer Price Index), a gauge of inflation, or lack thereof, and Jobless Claims hit at 8:30 AM. Flash PMI at 8:58 AM. Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed and Leading Indicators at 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Oil Inventories 11 AM delayed one day due to the holiday. Fed's Bullard and Williams are talking after lunch time and the 30-Year Bond Auction is 1 PM. Fed's Fisher talks this evening well after the markets close. Quite a line-up today. WMT and HPQ earnings are important today, also JWN to see if the wealthy are spending.
Keybot the Quant, Keystone's trading algo, is near flipping to the short side. Watch UTIL 468, RTH 45.45, GTX 4930, XLF 17.20 and VIX 15.70. All are in the bull camp so if any one of them jump to the bear side, Keybot will likely flip short. Keybot has been long the market for about two months now. For the SPX today starting at 1512, the bulls will simply focus on keeping all five parameters in their camp. This will stop the downside slide. The bears only need to see slight negativity in the futures and this will accelerate a move lower probably to test the strong 1505 support. The 20-day MA at 1510.06 is key support. The 200 EMA on the 1-hour chart is 1498.16 where real trouble begins. The market bears are finally providing some push back but the 19-point move off the top is small in comparison to the 130-handle move higher this year thus far. Pay close attention to volatility, VIX 15.70, and the retail sector, RTH 45.45.
Note Added 2/21/13 at 7:18 AM: WMT earnings beat by ten cents on the bottom line but was short on the top line, also guiding lower. WMT is down -0.8% pre-market, this will push the RTH lower today, if it holds. S&P futures are down about three. Oil 93.96. Euro 1.3176.
Terimakasih anda telah membaca artikel tentang Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 2/21/13. Jika ingin menduplikasi artikel ini diharapkan anda untuk mencantumkan link https://bublesburst.blogspot.com/2013/02/keystone-morning-wake-up-22113.html. Terimakasih atas perhatiannya.